2026 Scottish Parliament Election Forecast

This page has our seat by seat prediction for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. It is calculated by a weighted average of Scottish Parliament polls together with a uniform swing relative to the last election. We assume that the turnout will be the same as in the last election.

You can see in certain constituencies where the drop in the national vote for a particular party is more than that particular party had at the previous election, leading to instances where parties have zero votes, therefore emphasising a limitation of the uniform swing model. However, the seat by seat prediction is still interesting nonetheless, even when tested to the limit.

Summary

		Seats		Seat Changes
Party		Then	Now	Gains	Losses	Net
	Labour	22	48	+40	-14	+26
	SNP	64	42	+20	-42	-22
	Conservative	31	18	+5	-18	-13
	Liberal Democrat	4	11	+7	0	+7
	Green	8	10	+2	0	+2

Constituency

		Votes			Seats		Seat Changes
Party		Then	Now	Change	Then	Now	Gains	Losses	Net
	Labour	21.59%	35.35%	+13.76%	2	38	+36	0	+36
	SNP	47.70%	34.14%	-13.57%	62	20	0	-42	-42
	Conservative	21.89%	14.11%	-7.78%	5	10	+5	0	+5
	Liberal Democrat	6.94%	8.13%	+1.19%	4	5	+1	0	+1

Region

		Votes			Seats		Seat Changes
Party		Then	Now	Change	Then	Now	Gains	Losses	Net
	Labour	18.00%	31.41%	+13.41%	20	10	+4	-14	-10
	SNP	40.30%	29.08%	-11.22%	2	22	+20	0	+20
	Conservative	23.46%	15.14%	-8.32%	26	8	0	-18	-18
	Liberal Democrat	5.05%	8.80%	+3.75%	0	6	+6	0	+6
	Green	8.11%	8.60%	+0.49%	8	10	+2	0	+2
	ALBA	1.65%	1.65%	0.00%	0	0	0	0	0
	AFU	0.86%	0.86%	0.00%	0	0	0	0	0

These averages are based on the Scottish Parliament election polls.

Download Options

• Votes.csv (separated by semicolons)
• Percentages.csv (separated by semicolons)

Central Scotland

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Glasgow

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Highlands and Islands

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Lothian

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Mid Scotland and Fife

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North East Scotland

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South Scotland

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West Scotland

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