On this page are the latest Northern Irish Westminster polls for the 2024 general election together with a uniform swing calculation of the polling average. The seat and majority calculations are lifted directly from the 2024 General Election Swingometer for Northern Ireland.
Note: General Elections are scheduled to be held a maximum of 5 years from the first meeting of parliament plus 25 working days in accordance with the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. We will refer to the election as if it were to be held in 2024 unless it becomes clear that an early general election will happen.
Here is the polling average of the polls below together with the seat changes on a uniform swing. Information on how the polling average is calculated is available here.
| Votes | Seats | Seat Changes | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Change | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net | |
| Sinn Fein | 22.74% | 31.10% | +8.36% | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| DUP | 30.53% | 23.50% | -7.03% | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alliance NI | 16.77% | 15.20% | -1.57% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| SDLP | 14.85% | 11.10% | -3.75% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| UUP | 11.65% | 8.10% | -3.55% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
See which seats have changed hands using our seat calculator.
At the bottom of this page are the most recent Northern Irish Westminster polls for the 2024 general election ordered from newest to oldest. These polls should be used in conjunction with the Northern Irish Westminster swingometer. Pollsters ask the participants how they would vote if there were a general election tomorrow, or words to that effect.
| Last Day of Field Work | Pollster / Client | Sample Size | Weight | DUP | SF | APNI | SDLP | UUP | TUV | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2024 | SMR Belfast / University of Liverpool / Irish News | 1,206 | 1.00 | 23.5 | 31.1 | 15.2 | 11.1 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 7.6 |
| 3 Nov 2023 | The Institute of Irish Studies / Social Market Research | 1,074 | - | 25 | 31 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 6 |