On this page are the latest Welsh Westminster polls for the 2024 general election together with a uniform swing calculation of the polling average. The seat and majority calculations are lifted directly from the 2024 General Election Swingometer for Wales.
Note: General Elections are scheduled to be held a maximum of 5 years from the first meeting of parliament plus 25 working days in accordance with the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. We will refer to the election as if it were to be held in 2024 unless it becomes clear that an early general election will happen.
Here is the polling average of the polls below together with the seat changes on a uniform swing. Information on how the polling average is calculated is available here.
| Votes | Seats | Seat Changes | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Change | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net | |
| Labour | 40.93% | 40.00% | -0.93% | 18 | 25 | +7 | 0 | +7 | |
| Conservative | 36.08% | 18.00% | -18.08% | 12 | 2 | 0 | -10 | -10 | |
| Reform UK | 5.43% | 18.00% | +12.57% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Plaid Cymru | 9.92% | 14.00% | +4.08% | 2 | 4 | +2 | 0 | +2 | |
| Liberal Democrat | 5.97% | 6.00% | +0.03% | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | |
| Green | 1.02% | 4.00% | +2.98% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
See which seats have changed hands using our seat calculator.
At the bottom of this page are the most recent Welsh Westminster polls for the 2024 general election ordered from newest to oldest. These polls should be used in conjunction with the Welsh Westminster swingometer. Pollsters ask the participants how they would vote if there were a general election tomorrow, or words to that effect.
| Last Day of Field Work | Pollster / Client | Sample Size | Weight | LAB | CON | PC | LD | RefUK | GRN | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | 840 | 1.00 | 40 | 18 | 14 | 6 | 18 | 4 | 22 |
| 24 Mar 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | 878 | - | 49 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 33 |
| 18 Feb 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | 874 | - | 45 | 22 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 5 | 23 |
| 26 Jan 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,100 | - | 48 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 28 |